Belal Muhammad’s first title defense was supposed to happen five months ago. Who knew its delay would end up muddying the waters in three divisions?
At UFC 310, Muhammad was supposed to defend the welterweight championship against the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov, but a foot infection forced Muhammad out and a lot has changed since then. Multiple legitimate challengers have stepped up at 170 pounds, including Muhammad’s UFC 315 adversary Jack Della Maddalena, and then there’s the buzz swirling around Muhammad’s friend, lightweight king Islam Makhachev.
Should Muhammad lose Saturday, that could open up a path for Makhachev to move up to 170 pounds to fight Della Maddalena. But if that happens, what do we do with Ilia Topuria, who recently vacated the featherweight title with the expectation he could fight for a belt at 155 pouds? If Muhammad wins, does that make Makhachev vs. Topuria the obvious fight to make (especially with UFC 317 still needing a main event) or does Topuria still have to beat a top lightweight contender to earn his opportunity?
UFC 315 isn’t the most hyped card of the year, but MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew sat down to figure out what storylines could emerge from the UFC’s return to Montreal, which also could see flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko set up a superfight with Zhang Weili.
1. What’s the best main event outcome for the UFC’s future plans?
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Photo by Ben Roberts Photo/Getty Images
Lee: It’s no secret that I’m an advocate for chaos and that means Jack Della Maddalena has to win.
With respect to “JDM,” this wasn’t even supposed to be his opportunity. He certainly has the credentials for it, but Shavkat Rakhmonov has clearly been the No. 1 choice for sometime and were it not for injuries keeping him on the sidelines, he’d be the one receiving the opportunity to turn the division on its head.
As it stands, our hopes for a massive shift lie on Della Maddalena’s shoulders. I want to see him make that first domino fall, so Islam Makhachev can go up, Ilia Topuria can fight someone else for a vacant lightweight title, and Makhachev can drop back down to lightweight in the future to finally settle the Topuria rivalry.
Heck: Both outcomes are interesting, but I’ll say it’s Muhammad retaining.
Of course, I would be wildly intrigued by Islam Makhachev moving up to welterweight to try and win a second belt — and hoping he’d vacate the lightweight title — but Muhammad is vastly underrated, and I’m curious to see how his title run could look if he beats JDM, then fights Rakhmonov, then Ian Machado Garry, and all of the other possibilities based on what the next couple of months look like.
Also, there are still A TON of interesting lightweight title fights for Makhachev, and I’m still holding out hope for Arman Tsarukyan getting his chance at some point.
Meshew: The “best” outcome for the UFC has almost a zero percent chance of happening, but since that’s what you asked for, here it is: Belal Muhammad defeats Jack Della Maddalena, gets on the mic and immediately vacates his title to move up to 185 pounds.
Muhammad is an undeniably great fighter, but we don’t have to pretend like he’s a champion that UFC is desperate to have. His fights tend to not be that exciting and for as much as he’s tried to be captivating on the mic, it’s doesn’t quite get over. Having Muhammad as champ is something the UFC can tolerate but will never be stoked about.
So if he decides to willingly drop the belt, that’s obviously good news for the UFC, who can now put Islam Makhachev in a welterweight title fight, but instead of it being against JDM, now it’s against Shavkat Rakhmonov. That’s about as good of a fight as the promotion can ask for.
And hey, I know Dricus du Plessis says he’s fighting Khamzat Chimaev later this year, but you never know. Muhammad has been trying to fight Chimaev for ages, so if the UFC wanted to strap an interim title to that fight and put it at International Fight Week, I suspect people would come around to the idea.
2. Valentina Shevchenko beats Manon Fiorot. Her next title defense is against...
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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Meshew: There’s a good case for Natalia Silva if she beats Alexa Grasso, but I just don’t see that happening. Silva doesn’t have the juice yet, and there is a sneaky line building up at flyweight. My guess is the next flyweight title challenger is the winner of the Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber fight at this end of this month. For one, it’s a main event which is usually a better indicator of being in the title picture, and it’s also two bigger names than Silva has right now.
Blanchfield was hyped as the next big thing, and she’s still just 25 years old. And Barber hyped herself up as the next big thing and has finally turned the corner to actually good fighter. I think the UFC will favor the name and hype of either woman compared to the hardcore fan darling that is Silva.
Lee: Alexa Grasso tetralogy! I kid, I kid.
Much like with my JDM answer, I want to see some movement in these divisions, and that means Natalia Silva putting on a show against the former champion and cementing (icing?) her spot as the No. 1 contender. Silva has a legitimate chance to not only be a fresh name for Shevchenko to fight, she might just have the skills to beat her—or at the very least, catch Shevchenko in a decline while Silva approaches her peak.
After that, I still see plenty of compelling names for Shevchenko - especially if Jasmine Jasudavicius knocks off Jessica Andrade on Saturday - and I’m always in favor of champions holding court rather than chasing (or perhaps welcoming) fighters from other divisions.
Heck: It should be “Natty Ice” with a win over Alexa Grasso, but no matter what happens, Zhang Weili will be next because time is running out in putting that fight together.
The women’s divisions in the UFC are competitive, but they desperately need a spark, and booking a fight between Shevchenko and Weili would certainly provide one. Silva would likely have to wait for her chance to fight for the belt, but if she beats Grasso - and I believe she will - either fight would be pretty darn big for her.
3. Name one fighter who could steal the show in Montreal?
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Heck: I already mentioned her in the previous question, it’s “Natty Ice,”
Silva is fun as hell when she competes, plus she has a contagious personality that could truly put her over to the fan base. If she beats Grasso, it will not be in a boring fashion, plus she’ll cut a post-fight promo that will get people excited for her. Easy pick for me.
Meshew: I’m so upset. The answer was obviously Benoit Saint Denis and, my guy, Joel Alvarez, but now it looks like that fight is off. If Reiner de Ridder hadn’t just beat the soul out of Bo Nickal, sadness would reign in the Meshew household right now. But with that Saint Denis and Alvarez no longer an option, I will default to another very on brand choice: the GOAT, Jose Aldo.
Aldo faces Aiemann Zahabi in one of the worst pieces of matchmaking in modern MMA history but that doesn’t matter. Aldo is one of the five greatest fighters to ever live and every time he steps back out there he only reinforces how absurdly great he is. Name me another MMA fighter who is still beating elite competition a decade after their prime and doing so in a harder weight class? I’ll wait.
Aldo is going to come out and once again prove his greatness and when he does, the UFC is going to shock the world. Dana will come to the post-fight press conference and acknowledge that they have mishandled this final chapter of his career with insane and terrible matchups, and also screwed him out of a bantamweight title shot by giving it to crippled T.J. Dillashaw for some reason.
And so, in consideration of their repeated and egregious f*ck ups, and the fact that Aldo gave current champion Merab Dvalishvili the most difficult fight of his current run, the promotion is pulling (possibly) injured Sean O’Malley from the main event of UFC 316 and replacing him with Jose Aldo. Righteousness prevails!
Lee: Jasmine Jasudavicius, this is your moment.
The St. Catharines native is a late bloomer, but she’s made up for lost time with a series of impressive performances, including a beatdown of recent bantamweight title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva. It’s unclear how much room is left to grow for the 36-year-old Jasudavicius, but she’s making all the right moves so far, including setting up a meeting with former UFC champion and two-division threat Jessica Andrade.
A strong outing Saturday takes Jasudavicius from quirky contender to legitimate title challenger, something Canada has been missing for a while.
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