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UFC Des Moines predictions

Alexander K. Lee https://ift.tt/i4aXvBI
UFC Fight Night: Yan v Figueiredo
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Cory Sandhagen is tired of being an also-ran.

Aljamain Sterling. T.J. Dillashaw. Petr Yan. Umar Nurmagomedov. Those are Sandhagen’s four UFC losses and all four went on to fight for the bantamweight title in their very next bookings after beating Sandhagen. It’s a rough footnote to have on your résumé. Sandhagen is clearly one of the five or six best bantamweights on the planet, but he’s yet to prove he deserves a shot at being No. 1.

That puts some pressure on him heading into Saturday’s UFC Des Moines main event as he takes on two-time flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. The Brazilian star has done well at 135 pounds, winning his first three fights in the division before dropping a decision to Yan. Even though Sandhagen has a considerable size advantage, Figueiredo is still a daunting hill to climb and the fall could be precipitous if Sandhagen falters.

In other main card action, former ONE Championship star Reinier de Ridder is tasked with testing blue-chip prospect Bo Nickal, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez face off in the welterweight division’s senior circuit, Montel Jackson makes his annual appearance when he takes on the undefeated Daniel Marcos, bantamweights Cameron Smotherman and Serhiy Sidey look to steal the show, and Jeremy Stephens—yes, that Jeremy Stephens—makes a surprise return to the UFC to face fellow returnee Mason Jones.

What: UFC Des Moines

Where: Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa.

When: Saturday, May 3. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET also on ESPN2 and ESPN+.


(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Cory Sandhagen (4) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (7)

The Cory Sandhagen contender storyline still has some life in it.

Yes, I’m picking “The Sandman” to get the W here and stay right on the cusp of that elusive title shot. He matches up super well with Deiveson Figueiredo. He’s way bigger, he can handle Figueiredo in the striking department, and he has the takedown defense to stifle Figueiredo if the former flyweight king switches up tactics on him.

There are plenty of areas for concern for Sandhagen. Even a division up, Figueiredo’s power has translated, and maybe he can be the first fighter to knock Sandhagen out. Unlikely, but possible. He’s also more well-rounded, as evidenced by his classic tetralogy with Brandon Moreno that explored every angle of the octagon.

But Sandhagen is favored for a reason and not just for his elite standup skills. It’s possible he goes on the offensive with his wrestling, using his sheer size to tackle Figueiredo and frustrate him on the ground. There’s a simple formula for a Sandhagen win here, all he has to do is follow the plan.

Sandhagen by decision.

Pick: Sandhagen

Reinier de Ridder (13) vs. Bo Nickal

Hoo boy, this one could get bowling shoe ugly.

First off, I was a fan of this booking when it was announced, and after examining all the angles, I’m even more into it. Bo Nickal did enough to pass the Paul Craig test, a significant leap up in competition, but it was hardly thrilling and it raised a lot of questions as to whether he’s being put on the right developmental path. Reinier de Ridder, a two-division champion in ONE, is his eighth MMA opponent and one that could trip him up pretty badly.

Nickal is one of the pound-for-pound best athletes in the game right now, so he has an advantage against almost any middleweight he’s matched up with. That includes de Ridder, a slick grappler and a smart fighter that Nickal should be able to take down at will. He’s a three-time national champion in wrestling. Why does he not just do this? Keep the martial arts apart, Bo!

Going to the ground with the submission-minded de Ridder might not be the best strategy, but if Nickal is to regain some steam, it would be nice to see him go to the discipline he’s better at than almost anyone on the planet. Sure, sure, mix in some cardio kickboxing, it’s all good. Just wrestle a little this time.

I’m ready for anything. A dreary middleweighty middleweight bout. Nickal trucking de Ridder. De Ridder outwitting Nickal and catching him with a submission. Anything. No matter what, I’m winning.

Pick: Nickal

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Age-appropriate matchmaking, thank you!

Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez both turned 38 at the tail end of last year and I have no interest in lining them up like bowling pins to be knocked down by the next generation of welterweights. Let’s show these guys some respect for their hard work, please.

Even better, both men want to stand and strike so this matchup accommodates them perfectly. These two bring similar kickboxing styles to the cage and we should be treated to a competitive, professional three-round scrap. Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby delivered last week and Ponzinibbio and Rodriguez could deliver similar thrills (without the wild finish).

This is an incredibly harsh thing to say, but in my estimation it’s Rodriguez who has lost more of a step in recent years, despite having far less cage time than Ponzinibbio (he’ll have officially have more fights than years on this Earth when he makes the walk Saturday). Neither man is known for their high-octane style, but Ponzinibbio’s more varied attack has aged better.

Ponzinibbio by decision.

Pick: Ponzinibbio

Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos

Where would Montel Jackson be if he was able to get in the octagon more than once a year? “Quik” is on a five-fight win streak, trailing only Mario Bautista (7) and Merab Dvalishvili (11) for the longest in the bantamweight division, but you wouldn’t know it due to his inactivity. He makes his 2025 debut after fighting just once in 2024, 2023, and 2022. And he’s a great fighter! Just something to think about.

This division moves so fast, it wouldn’t be a surprise if someone with less UFC experience—say, Daniel Marcos?—leapfrogged over him in the rankings. Marcos is an excellent striker with serious power in his right hand and he can end this one fast if Jackson makes a mistake. Fortunately for Jackson, he has a size and speed advantage, not to mention having fought superior competition.

Marcos is yet to taste defeat, but he’s had some hairy moments in recent fights and gotten away with them in the end. He won’t be as lucky against Jackson, who will find Marcos’ chin and finish him in the first or second round.

Pick: Jackson

Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey

As much as I love the men’s bantamweight division, I’ve questioned this one getting a main card spot due to the relative anonymity Cameron Smotherman and Serhiy Sidey.

Is former women’s bantamweight champion Miesha Tate’s fight with Yana Santos not worthy of the latter half of the broadcast? What about ranked strawweights Marina Rodriguez and Gillian Robertson? Or even just an obligatory heavyweight bout between Thomas Petersen and Don’Tale Mayes, a fight that screams “horrible!” but satisfies the matchmakers preference to throw large fellows into the cage.

Anyway, these up-and-comers can shut me right up with a Fight of the Night performance, which has to be what the UFC is banking on. Smotherman has some hands on him and while his all-around game could use some work, his fan-friendly boxing should keep him hanging around at 135 for the next few years. As for Sidhey, he’s also more inclined to use his grappling for defense, and he’ll welcome Smotherman to meet him on the feet.

Smotherman has had issues with consistency, but I like his ceiling and I think the best version of him can win that standup battle. I’m going with him to score the minor upset.

Pick: Smotherman

Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones

I know I said Smotherman and Sidhey could steal the show, but let’s be honest: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones is the front-runner for FOTN.

Stephens, Des Moines born and bred, couldn’t resist the chance to fight in his hometown despite the success he’s having in bare-knuckle boxing, so Uncle Dana did him a favor and booked him a cherry spot on the card. He also gave him a willing dance partner in Jones, also making his UFC comeback after an entertaining 4-0 stint with Cage Warriors.

If your enduring memory of Jones’ initial UFC run was his banger of a debut against Mike Davis, you’ll be pleased to know his mindset has not changed. Sure, he has plenty of technical skill, but when it comes down to it, Jones wants to scrap and it’s a guarantee he meets Stephens in the middle and throws down.

I’d love to see this go the distance because these two will batter each other for three rounds, but I actually like Stephens to beat the odds here with a vintage knockout. That Iowa air will reinvigorate “Lil’ Heathen” and push him to victory in what could be his last UFC hurrah.

Pick: Stephens

Preliminaries

Yana Santos (12) def. Miesha Tate

Azamat Bekoev def. Ryan Loder

Marina Rodriguez (9) def. Gillian Robertson (14)

Gaston Bolanos def. Quang Le

Thomas Petersen def. Don’Tale Mayes

Ivana Petrovic def. Juliana Miller



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