The UFC returns to the O2 Arena for the first time in over a year with Saturday’s UFC London event, headlined by a welterweight fight between Leon Edwards and Sean Brady. It’s Edwards’s first fight back since dropping the title to Belal Muhammad, and the former champion is looking to make a statement to prove he deserves a trilogy fight with his rival.
Will Edwards get back on the winning track or is Brady ready to stake his own claim for a title fight? And what about the other 12 fights on the card? Let’s take a look at the best bets for this weekend.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty ImagesSingle Plays
Leon Edwards (+130)
I’m a bit surprised to see Edwards, the former champion, as the underdog here, but when you consider the style matchup, it makes sense. Brady is one of the premier grapplers at welterweight right now and Muhammad ran roughshod over Edwards with takedowns and top control. But can Brady do the same?
I’m not so sure. While I’m not buying into Edwards’s many excuses for why he performed so poorly against Muhammad, I also don’t want to discount them entirely because historically, he’s been a better defensive wrestler than he showed in that fight. If Brady comes out and immediately plants Edwards on his tail, I’m going to regret this bet. But I think Edwards is going to prove more capable of keeping things standing than anticipated, leaving Brady at a severe disadvantage on the feet.
Kevin Holland (+104)
This breakdown is basically an amalgamation of my thoughts on the main and co-main event.
In the feature bout, Holland faces off with grappling wizard Gunnar Nelson, with “Trailblazer” coming in as the underdog. Again, it’s easy to see why: Holland struggles with grapplers. That being said, Holland primarily struggles with middleweight grapplers, and for this fight, he’s finally back down at welterweight, where he’s much better suited. Plus, Nelson is getting along in years and hasn’t fought in two years. I think Holland can keep this standing and box up Nelson in this fight.
Marcin Tybura (+112)
Tybura takes on Mick Parkin in a prelim bout between ranked heavyweights, and this line feels wrong. Yes, Parkin is undefeated and trains with Tom Aspinall, but that doesn’t make him good. He’s yet to even fight someone with a Wikipedia page and while Tybura isn’t a world-beater, he’s proven repeatedly that he’s a top 10 heavyweight. Maybe Parkin has a coming-out party on Saturday, but until proven otherwise, the expectation should be that Tybura keeps the gates yet again, and so as an underdog, I’m playing him.
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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLCProp Bets
Carlos Ulberg by Points (+160)
Ulberg is one of the biggest favorites on the card and it’s easy to see why. Not only is “Ladies Night” on a great run at the moment, but it’s hard to trust Jan Blachowicz in this matchup. Blachowicz is 42 years old and coming off a serious shoulder injury that sidelined him for nearly 20 months. I’m not a medical doctor, but shoulder injuries don’t tend to be easier to handle when you’re in your 40s. I’m supremely confident Ulberg will get his hand raised on Saturday.
That being said, Blachowicz certainly deserves everyone’s respect. Not only is he one of the most unlikely champions in UFC history, but the “Legendary Polish Power” has proven time and again to be a tough out against anyone he’s in the cage with (just ask Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev). I think he can make Ulberg work for this one and so there’s some value on the decision bet here.
Alexia Thainara by Submission (+430)
I wouldn’t go too crazy on this one, but Thainara makes her UFC debut against Molly McCann on the main card on Saturday, and she’s got a great chance to impress. Though Thainara is still very green, she’s a good prospect and a very good grappler. That lines up well against McCann who consistently struggles against superior grapplers. This is a big price and worth a stab given the stylistic matchup.
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLCParlay
Is this parlay going to win? Honestly, probably not. But as the great Bunk Moreland once said, a man must have a code. My code? I’m betting the Gimmick Parlay every time. Every. Damn. Time. Especially when that parlay has a 100 percent hit rate thus far.
I am, of course, talking about the fact that on Saturday, two men named Chris Duncan will be competing in the octagon. On the main card, lightweight Chris Duncan (+310) takes on Jordan Vucenic, while on the prelims, Christian Leroy Duncan (-560) faces off with Andrey Pulyaev. You really expect me not to team them up?
On top of the obvious, this is actually the second time the Chris Duncan Parlay has been available. Both Duncans competed back at UFC 286 in 2023, and do you know what that card has in common with this one? That was also at the O2 Arena and also headlined by Leon Edwards.
Basically what I’m saying is this is as close to a lock as these things get.
Parlay these two bets together for +383 odds.
Wrap Up
At this point, I hope you’re out here fading me every week. I cannot buy a winning week this year. I’d like to say “Maybe that’ll change this week” but history suggests that’s not the case. Alas, nothing for it but to press on.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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