Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot are tasked with bringing the UFC back to the APEX in style.
Believe it or not, the UFC APEX hasn’t hosted an event since mid-August, with the promotion going on a world tour from Boston to Singapore to France to Australia and then back to Las Vegas for this past weekend’s pay-per-view at T-Mobile Arena. If you’re on the fence about tuning in to UFC Vegas 79, you could do a lot worse than a headliner featuring two of the most exciting lightweights in the game.
One hopes that a win might also propel Fiziev and Gamrot closer to the top 5 of a division that has too often seen too little movement at the top. It’s a big ask given that both fighters have recently suffered losses in bouts that could have landed them in the next tier of contenders, but an impressive performance on Saturday should earn the winner another shot at a big name. As for the loser, they run the risk of dropping into the ranks of the also-rans of a division that grows tougher every year.
In other main card action, top 15 featherweights Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige collide, Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson-Gomez meet in a rematch of strawweight veterans, The Ultimate Fighter 29 champion Bryan Battle looks for his fifth win in six UFC appearances when he faces A.J. Fletcher, and featherweight Ricardo Ramos returns from a long layoff to fight Charles Jourdain.
What: UFC Vegas 79
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Sept. 23. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings)
Rafael Fiziev (7) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (8)
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup where it’s easy to imagine either fighter dominating with their specialty. Rafael Fiziev will want to keep this one standing where he can pick Mateusz Gamrot apart for five rounds, while Gamrot will go all out to put Fiziev on his back and neutralize him. Neither fighter is helpless in the event that they are taken out of their comfort zone, but I doubt that either takes an unexpected path to victory.
As usual, I’ll lean towards the grappler because I feel Gamrot has more options to take the fight where he needs it to go. And he better, because though he has some pop in his hands and a good chin, he doesn’t have the standup vocabulary to outscore Fiziev. Expect him to wade through the dangerous Fiziev’s punches, kicks, and knees to find openings for takedowns.
On the other side, Fiziev may have to forego using some of his more adventurous techniques to ensure that this stays a kickboxing match. He’ll undoubtedly have learned a lot from the Justin Gaethje fight, so improved footwork is key to him preventing Gamrot from swarming him and dragging him to the mat. A knockout is always a possibility when we’re talking about Fiziev, but it’s a remote one against the former two-division KSW champ.
We’re going to see several wild swings of momentum in this one as both fighters work to wear the other down and force them to play their game. In the end, it’s Gamrot who will use his wrestling to grind out a victory.
Pick: Gamrot
Bryce Mitchell (13) vs. Dan Ige (15)
People shouldn’t be too down on Bryce Mitchell after his loss to Ilia Topuria. According to Mitchell, he had the flu and more importantly he ran into a fighter who should be fighting for a UFC title soon. Topuria is so good that he made Mitchell look bad for one night. That doesn’t mean we should give up on “Thug Nasty” as a contender.
That said, he has a ton to prove against Dan Ige, one of the toughest outs in the stacked featherweight division. We tend to count Ige out when talking about the best fighters at 145 pounds—OK, maybe I’m the only dummy who keeps forgetting to give him his due—but he’s done pretty well for himself against a strong set of opponents. His past five: Nate Landwehr, Damon Jackson, Movsar Evloev, Josh Emmett, and The Korean Zombie. And he looked great against Landwehr and Jackson.
Like Gamrot in the main event, Mitchell’s goal will be to take Ige down early and often. The problem is that Ige has an excellent ground game, and while his most recent loss came against a wrestler (Evloev), he otherwise handles himself well in the grappling department. Mitchell’s top game has to be on point if he wants to get past Ige.
Overlook Ige at your own risk. I have him outworking the less experienced Mitchell on the feet and earning a decision win.
Pick: Ige
Marina Rodriguez (10) vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez
This is a strange choice for a rematch.
In fairness, Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson-Gomez are probably happy to run this one back after their first fight a couple of years ago came together on short notice just so the UFC could fill a main event slot. Now they’ve both had proper time to prepare and have five rounds of data to work with.
Those previous five rounds favored Rodriguez in the end, though both fighters had their moments. Waterson-Gomez remained as technical as ever on the feet while mixing in takedowns and Rodriguez showed off her boxing acumen. It was the power punching of Rodriguez that made the difference in the end and I’m expecting this fight to play out in similar fashion.
Though Rodriguez and Waterson-Gomez are both mired in slumps, it’s hard to hold that against them given their quality of competition. They’ve rarely looked outmatched and it’s not crazy to imagine either woman making a late charge towards the top of the rankings. If I have to pick one, it’s Rodriguez, who emerges with a win on the scorecards on Saturday.
Pick: Rodriguez
Bryan Battle vs. A.J. Fletcher
Bryan Battle has a massive 10-inch reach advantage in this matchup and that could be all the difference.
Look at A.J. Fletcher and you’ll see a stocky welterweight with plus-athleticism and some serious muscle. But it’s no coincidence that his two UFC losses have come against long-armed opposition that have frustrated him with range striking. That could mean that he’s now well-equipped to adapt against Battle, but it could also just mean that these kinds of fighters are his kryptonite.
It doesn’t help that Battle has shown a ton of promise since winning The Ultimate Fighter 29 at a 185 pounds. He’s a confident striker with one-shot KO power and he’s not averse to mixing it up on the ground too.
Barring a major mistake, Battle should put Fletcher away inside the distance.
Pick: Battle
Ricardo Ramos vs. Charles Jourdain
I’m not as concerned with how Ricardo Ramos has looked in previous fights as I am with what’s going on between the ears. The 28-year-old Brazilian is his athletic prime and at times has looked like a legitimate top 10 threat. At other times, specifically when facing higher-ranked opposition, he’s looked middle of the pack.
That’s about where I’d place Charles Jourdain too. He’s outclassed a handful of opponents, but at other times it feels like he’s missing that extra gear to become a true contender. Ramos should bring out the best in him.
In fact, these two should bring out the best in each other, especially with the responsibility of opening the main card. Ramos has to prove that his horrific weight miss that led to a recent fight cancelation was a fluke (he later attributed the gaffe to an injury). Jourdain has to prove that he’s not just a midrange gatekeeper.
At his best, Ramos is a methodical fighter who picks his spots and when it’s time to unload, he does so in dramatic fashion, showing finishing instinct as a striker and grappler. It’s for this reason that I’ll go with him to beat the steadier Jourdain. Because unpredictability and chaos are always more fun to root for, right?
Pick: Ramos
Preliminaries
Miles Johns def. Dan Argueta
Tim Means def. Andre Fialho
Jacob Malkoun def. Cody Brundage
Mohammed Usman def. Jake Collier
Mizuki Inoue def. Hannah Goldy
Tamires Vidal def. Montserrat Rendon
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