UFC 314 Roundtable: Is this do or die for Alexander Volkanovski?

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Alexander Volkanovski | Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Alex Volkanovski’s back is against the wall.

This Saturday, Volkanovski returns to action for the first time since losing his featherweight title to Ilia Topuria at UFC 298, taking on Diego Lopes in the main event of UFC 314. The former top pound-for-pound fighter in the world is already a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer, but a win will add another chapter to his legendary career, while a loss might spell the end of it.

What’s at stake for Volkanovski and Lopes on Saturday? And what about the rest of the super stacked UFC 314? MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Damon Martin, and Jed Meshew put their heads together to break down all the biggest stories heading into the best pay-per-view card of the year so far.

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Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria

1. Is this do or die for Alexander Volkanovski?

Lee: Yes.

“Old Man Volk” is a funny gimmick, but let’s be honest, it’s also a cutesy way of dealing with the realities of the fight game. At 36, Alexander Volkanovski is by no means approaching senior status, but he’s been through it in fight years and that’s just reality. Thirteen years pro and thirty fights under his belt, much of which were spent against the very best fighters in the world. It takes its toll. It has to.

So what’s left for Volkanovski if he doesn’t regain the UFC title Saturday? An uninspiring jump up to 155 pounds? We’ve already seen how good he can be up there potentially and there are matchups with other veterans that are appealing, but if he’s not chasing another championship opportunity, then what’s the point for him?

And it’s hard to picture Volkanovski firing himself up for another run to the top of 145 pounds. This opportunity is as good as it gets with Ilia Topuria out of the picture and a beatable opponent in Diego Lopes. It’s a chance that won’t come again.

Far be it from us to equate retirement with death, but Volkanovski owes nothing to anyone, so it’s completely understandable if he pulls the plug on his fighting career in the event his hand isn’t raised at UFC 314.

Meshew: You should never say never in this sport, but in this case, I’m going to do just that. This is make or break for Volkanovski, at least so far as the title picture is concerned.

In my opinion, Volkanovski is one of the 10 greatest fighters of all time. But Father Time comes for us all, and he appears to be knocking on Volkanovski’s door. Volk’s lost three of his past four fights, the last two by knockout. Right now, we can explain that all away as “Well, one was a short-notice fight, up a weight class, against the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world and an all-time great; and the other was to what looks to be a future all-time great” but that argument falls apart the more “ands” you add to it. If Lopes blows Volkanovski’s doors off, it becomes pretty obvious that Volk isn’t at his peak anymore. And the history of MMA tells us that fighters who are past their prime almost never get back to the top, even if they can hang around for awhile.

And you know what? That’s OK. MMA isn’t strictly about fighting for titles. Sometimes it’s just about fighting good fights against great opponents, for fun. While a loss probably precludes Volkanovski from a title hunt again, it doesn’t prevent him from having legends fights with guys like Charles Oliveira or Justin Gaethje or Dustin Poirier. So if Volk is only interested in fighting for belts, then yes, this is do or die. But that doesn’t mean this has to be the end of his career. Not if he still wants to compete.

And if Volkanovski beats Lopes? Most people won’t view him as the true champion since Topuria vacated the title, and that’s fine. It’s still a terrific accomplishment and a nice additional feather in his cap as one of the best to ever do it.

Martin: In a world where Dustin Poirier can get knocked out, beat a random prospect, and then get a title shot, is anybody ever really, truly left for dead in the UFC?

With that said, Volkanovski appears to be in that make-or-break position because he’s coming off two violent knockout losses and he’s 36 years old and turning 37 in just a few months. The lighter weight divisions are rarely kind to older fighters so this really might be Volkanovski’s last shot at reclaiming a championship and making one last run at the top of the featherweight division.

Now, his legacy is cemented. He’s going to be remembered as one of the greatest featherweights of all time, but getting wiped out by Makhachev, Topuria and, hypothetically, Lopes in a trio of consecutive fights certainly isn’t the way he wants his run at the top of the sport to come to an end. On the flip-side, Volkanovski winning and becoming a two-time champion at his age only strengthens his claim that he occupies rarified air for GOAT status with only Jose Aldo and Max Holloway potentially sharing that same space with him.

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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

2. What are Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett fighting for?

Martin: Relevancy. But in a much different way for both fighters.

For Chandler, it’s easy to forget he’s only earned two wins in the UFC and one of those came against an aging and clearly on his way out Tony Ferguson. His debut knockout over Dan Hooker looks great right now, but Chandler simply can’t survive by being the guy who always puts on exciting fights before ultimately losing. None of his losses came against lackluster opposition, but Pimblett is a fringe top 15 fighter at best so Chandler can ill-afford to drop this one and watch his UFC record fall to 2-5 while simultaneously saying goodbye to his standing among the best fighters in the world at 155 pounds.

Meanwhile, Pimblett has the chance to prove he’s actually an elite lightweight because like it or not, the jury is still out on his true potential. Yes, he laid waste to King Green but the artist formerly known as Bobby has been wildly inconsistent lately while going 1-3 in his past four fights. If Pimblett can put somebody like Chandler away—no matter what his record says—that’s damn impressive and he can finally start considering himself a legitimate threat in the lightweight division.

Lee: Whoever loses Saturday is never fighting for a UFC title.

Depending how you view Chandler and Pimblett, that might be deeply insulting or an obvious fact about both fighters regardless of the outcome. I’ve long argued Pimblett is a better fighter than he gets credit for, suffering from the rare MMA affliction of his outsized persona causing critics to be unfairly harsh with their appraisal of his skills. He’s a great grappler, swings hard (even if his accuracy leaves something to be desired), and he’s damn near impossible to finish.

You know, that kind of describes Chandler, too, though Chandler is definitely a more respected striker with a more suspect chin. But he’s definitely similar in that outsized expectations (much of them his own creation) have put him in a strange light among MMA fans. Everything about him screams big-name fighter, but the results tell a different story and he’s nowhere near the level of notoriety of some of his rivals (*cough* McGregor *cough*).

So yes, Chandler vs. Pimblett is a fight for survival. It’s a fight for relevance. And it’s a fight for keeping the hopes of an unlikely title shot alive.

Meshew: In all honesty, when I started to answer this I was going to say “a title shot” because it felt like there is an outside chance that could happen. But as I started working through it, the true answer arose before me like the Lady of the Lake, bearing Excalibur: Saturday’s co-main event is the Ilia Topuria sweepstakes.

Right now the lightweight title picture is a complete mess. Makhachev is waiting to see if Jack Della Maddalena upsets Belal Muhammad and if that doesn’t happen, there is no clear-cut next contender for him. The best choice, Arman Tsarukyan, just blew his shot earlier this year, and none of the other contenders really stand out as great options. Then there’s Topuria, who fans really want to get the title shot but who does not remotely deserve it and who Makhachev basically told, “Beat one dude and then we can talk.” Well, here’s a dude!

The Paddy Pimblett stuff is so obvious I don’t even need to say it. They’ve got beef, Pimblett will be a legit contender, settle up. And as for Michael Chandler, he’s a popular fighter who the UFC kinda owes something to what with the Conor McGregor fiasco, so giving him a No. 1 contender matchup with Topuria feels like a solid makeup move for them. And for Topuria, that’s an exceedingly winnable fight against a big name that gets him to his goal. Frankly, if I’m Chandler and I win on Saturday, I’m not doing my usual “scream and call out McGregor” thing, I’m taking aim at Topuria and welcoming him to lightweight.

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3. Outside of the top-2 fights, which fight or fighter are you most excited about?

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Bryce Mitchell and Jean Silva

Meshew: I am deeply not excited about the featured bout of the evening because the UFC is transparently promoting a Hitler apologist and I’m not cool with that. So even though I love Jean Silva, that fight sucks. You know what fight doesn’t suck though? Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes!

Don’t look now, but after a four-fight losing streak and nearly being cut from the UFC, Reyes is on a win streak! (Two’s a streak, you bozo). Meanwhile, Krylov has won three in a row, though he’s been out for two years for some reason. This is a matchup of streaking, top 10 light heavyweights! Bigfoot droppings are more common!

But that’s not really why I care. I care because the fight should be fun. Reyes seems to be finding himself again and Krylov is almost never in a boring fight. These two big galoots are going to go scrap for 15 minutes or less and the result should be weird and fascinating and fun. Sign me up.

Martin: The popular answer is probably going to be Patricio Pitbull making his UFC debut, but truthfully the fight that has me sitting on the edge of my seat is the featherweight showdown between Jean Silva and Bryce Mitchell.

On one side you’ve got Silva—the Fighting Nerd who delivers non-stop action and highlight-reel finishes. And then there’s Mitchell, who believes the Earth is flat and seatbelts are stupid and somehow those are the least problematic stances he’s taken since arriving in the UFC!

If Silva wins, he rockets up to another stratosphere of popularity and attraction, especially if he can do his best Josh Emmett impression when it comes to finishing Mitchell. If Mitchell gets the job done hold onto your butts because his post-fight interview might produce more shock and awe than Sam Rockwell’s monologue on The White Lotus. How can you not just love those stakes?

Lee: I’m supposed to take the low-hanging Pitbull fruit here (whoa, that sounded kind of gross), but I’m actually going in a different direction: Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper, everybody!

It wasn’t long ago I openly questioned whether Hooper, barely 23 years old by the time he’d gone 3-3 in the UFC, would be better served returning to the regional scene. Now he’s not only strung together four wins to establish himself as a legit UFC fighter, he’s facing the promotion’s living embodiment of persistence and consistency: Jim F’ing Miller.

This is one On To the Next One listeners have called for on multiple occasions and I was reluctant to embrace it, but the time is right. I don’t know how good Hooper is still. I don’t know how close Miller is to the end of his career and if the age gap will finally catch up to him. I don’t know if this is a passing of the torch or if both guys are going to end up fighting at least 10 more times in the UFC. Any possibility is on the table.

Most importantly, it’s going to be a fun and fascinating fight to watch. Whether this stays on the feet or ends up on the ground, expect some wild exchanges, and for Miller to at one point face the realization that Hooper is young enough to be his son (16-year age difference, same as Lorelai and Rory Gilmore! Real ones know what I’m talking about!).

MMA, you always find new ways to surprise us.

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