Alexander Volkanovski is back and looking to reclaim his title.
On Saturday, Volkanovski faces Diego Lopes for the vacant featherweight title in the main event of UFC 314 in Miami. It’s Volkanovski’s first fight since dropping the title to Ilia Topuria (who later vacated the belt) and he promises a renewed effort this time around against the surging and dangerous Lopes. So let’s check out the keys to victory for both Volkanovski and Lopes on Saturday.
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Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty ImagesPaths to Victory for Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 314
At this point, what more is there to say about Volkanovski? He’s the second-greatest featherweight of all-time and a surefire Hall of Famer. After all, there aren’t that many people who can ever claim to have been the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and Volkanovski is one of them.
But is he still that guy? Volkanovski is 36 years old and in his past two fights, he was brutally knocked out twice. History tells us that’s a bad sign for his future prospects. But history also tells us that all-time greats tend to age better than most, because of their deep depth of skill they can fall back on.
Fortunately for Volkanovski, he has a tremendous amount of skill to rely on, far more than Lopes brings to the table. That’s not to crash Lopes, but Volkanovski has a vastly more varied and tricky game. On the feet, Lopes is rote and predictable, throwing the same few combinations and mostly looking to land wild hooks in close. While he has raw punching power, he doesn’t have the same sort of devastating boxing of Topuria, and he definitely doesn’t have the same footwork and counters that troubled Volkanovski.
Volk should be have plenty of success with his classic outside striking game, using his jab, low kicks, and movement to stymie Lopes’s offense. Also, Volkanovski’s ability to switch stances is interesting because we haven’t seen Lopes against many southpaws and shifting to southpaw should minimize Lopes’s counter right hand, which is one of his best punches.
Volkanovski can also have success in the grappling. Lopes is a tricky grappler but I’d be a bit surprised if he could get too much going on the floor against Volkanovski, who has never been submitted and has exceptional defense on the floor.
In short, Volkanovski should bring his classic game to the party on Saturday, which lines up very nicely against the explosive but much more limited Lopes.
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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLCPaths to victory for Diego Lopes at UFC 314
Alexander Volkanovski is one of the greatest fighters of all time. In his 16-fight UFC career, Volkanovski has show-cased elite technical skills in all facets of the game, and one of the most brilliant minds for fighting the sport has ever seen. Numerous times I’ve compared him to a casino in Las Vegas, because if you play long enough, the house (Volkanovski) always wins. Unless, as Danny Ocean once said, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet big and take the house. Fortunately for Lopes, he is exactly the sort of fighter that can bet big and take the house. Even more fortunately for Lopes, Volkanovski may well be a compromised version of himself.
The big question surrounding this fight is whether or not Volkanovski’s chin is cracked. Back-to-back KO losses is never a good sign and Lopes certainly hits hard enough to make it three in a row. And that should be the focus for him coming into this one.
In a straight kickboxing match against a prime Volkanovski, Lopes is probably in trouble. He’s more of a brawler than a technical mastermind and Volkanovski tends to cook against those sorts of fighters. Even so, there are still plenty of tools available for Lopes. The calf kick is the biggest one as Volkanovski uses so much movement that taking his legs out should be a priority.
The other priority for Lopes, and the way I think he can best win on Saturday, is the clinch. Lopes is not Anderson Silva in close, but once he’s in the phone booth, Lopes unloads the clip, throwing everything he’s got in an effort to hurt the opponent. That can be extremely effective against Volkanovski, the much smaller man, and we saw Islam Makhachev have great success with knees from the clinch in his rematch with Volkanovski. Every time Lopes gets in the phone booth with Volkanovski, it’s big advantage Lopes.
Prediction
How about a little good news/bad news. Good news: Volkanovski is one of the 10 greatest fighters to ever compete in MMA. Bad news: he’s 36 years old in a division where you can’t be old. Good news: Volkanovski is levels above Lopes skill-wise. Bad news: Volkanovski was never a dominant physical fighter and he’s past his prime.
And as reductive as it might seem, that is the central tension in this main event. Volkanovski is the superior technical fighter, but his chin might be compromised and Lopes is extremely dangerous. Volkanovski was never the most durable guy (he was buzzed or dropped in plenty of his fights) but if his chin is truly compromised, he’s finished. Lopes is too dangerous to avoid getting hit entirely for 25 minutes.
But I’m choosing to believe that’s not the case. Yes, Volkanovski is old, but I think he’s two KO losses are explicable (short notice at lightweight and then a quick turnaround against a massive hitter). He’s taken the time off to get to a good spot and I expect a rejuvenated Volkanovski shows up on Saturday with a vintage performance.
Alexander Volkanovski def. Diego Lopes via unanimous decision (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
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