UFC Vegas 83 Gambling Preview: Will Song Yadong announce himself as a top contender?

Jed Meshew https://ift.tt/6HsBWbd

Song Yadong | Photo by Amy Kaplan/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

UFC Vegas 83 takes place on Saturday in the world’s most famous APEX. The event is headlined by a bantamweight matchup between Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez, and MMA Fighting’s Jed Meshew is here to break it all down.

Can Song announce himself as a legitimate title contender? Will Gutierrez finally get the signature win that moves him into the top 10? How will Anthony Smith look on short notice against Khalil Rountree Jr.? Let’s dive into all those topics and more as we discuss the best bets this weekend.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Straight Bets

Chris Gutierrez, +300

Last week we bet Beneil Dariush against Arman Tsarukyan in the main event as a “value bet that probably fails, but the line is too large.”

Tsarukyan won in 64 seconds.

Welp, might as well go back to the well! I really like Song as a prospect, but Gutierrez is darn tough, and he presents a few legitimate challenges to the Team Alpha Male product — namely, low kicks. Gutierrez is going to make this a scrap, and over 25 minutes, it’s tough to predict how things will play out. This line seems too wide, so we’re siding with the value.

Anthony Smith, +170

Rountree was originally set to fight Azamat Murzakanov until an illness forced Murzakanov off the card. In stepped Smith, who is 35 years old going on 55. That being said, Smith is still pretty durable, and he’s got the sort of well-rounded game that can give a one-trick fighter like Rountree issues. Specifically, Smith is a good grappler, and though he’s a mediocre wrestler, Rountree isn’t any better. Smith has enough tools to get this done, if his chin can hold up to Rountree’s early barrage.

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Prop Bets

Nasrat Haqparast To Win By Decision, +110

In a featured lightweight bout, Haqparast faces Jamie Mullarkey on the main card, and the German fighter should be able to get it done. Mullarkey is big, but that’s sort of the extent of his game, and Haqparast is a savvy enough striker to simply outwork Mullarkey on the feet. That being said, Haqparast is many things, but a finisher ain’t one of them. The Tristar representative has gone to decision in six straight fights and in nine of 11 inside the UFC, so I like the decision prop here.

Talita Alencar To Win By Submission, +500

In the fight card opener, multiple-time BJJ world champion Alencar takes on former Invicta atomweight champion Rayanne dos Santos in a sneaky good battle. Dos Santos is the far more proven commodity but her bread and butter is grappling, and simply put, there are not many people in the world who can roll with Alencar and come out on top. This is wildly speculative but I think we’re going to get plenty of ground exchanges, and in that sort of fight, having a sub prop ticket for a multiple times over BJJ world champion feels like value.

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Parlay of the Week

Song Yadong -380 + Song Kenan +130

Longtime readers of this column will have seen this bet coming from miles away. There are few things I like more than a gimmick parlay, and with two Songs fighting on the card, it’s child’s play to tie them together. Does this fly in the face of my action on the main event? Sure does. Do I care? I do not. Gambling is about having fun, and this is how I do so.

Parlay these two bets together for +190 odds.

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Long Shot of the Week

Jun Yong Park To Win In round 3, +800

In a spectacular bit of matchmaking, one of middleweight’s great overachievers, Jun Yong Park, takes on one of the division’s great underachievers, Andre Muniz. In his last two fights, Muniz has run into the wall of expectations (and cardio) and fallen short, and “The Iron Turtle” is exactly the sort of fighter who will put both to the test. I expect Muniz to fail once again, and as the fight drags on, he’ll start to fade, making the third round for Turtle Time.

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Wrap Up

Woohooo! Last week was our first one back after a bit of a layoff and we came through in spades, hitting on our Long Shot of the Week to net a tidy profit. Hopefully we can make it back-to-back efforts to close out the year.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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